Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in fantasy football since he entered the league in 2020. An injury shortened 2023 season saw him feature in only 10 games, but he still managed to break 1,000 yards and land 5 TDs with Kirk Cousins under center.

Jefferson bounced back in a big way in 2024 under a new QB in Sam Darnold, registering 103 receptions for 1,533 yards and 10 TDs; can he do it under another new QB in 2025?

Justin Jefferson’s Fantasy Outlook

Justin Jefferson has an ADP of 4 in all league formats, according to Fantasy Pros, and will likely be the second wide receiver taken in fantasy drafts (following Ja’Marr Chase).

A hamstring strain in training camp is something fantasy managers will be paying close attention to, and scaremongers suggest there is a chance he will miss the first game of the campaign. This seems farfetched, based on recent comments coming out of Minnesota, and Jefferson being ready seems the likeliest outcome.

The issue this year with Jefferson is mostly around whether you can trust Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy to lead the offense and get Jefferson the ball.

McCarthy missed his entire rookie season with an ACL injury, and while healthy, he has been struggling a little in in training camp. As per Kevin Seifert of ESPN:

“Working against a defense that has unleashed its full arsenal of blitzes and coverage disguises, McCarthy’s accuracy has been inconsistent, particularly in the red zone. He has led receivers out of bounds and thrown high to a number of open targets running along the back line.”

This certainly presents some concerns for fantasy managers. While you shouldn’t judge players based on training camp performances, taking Justin Jefferson early in fantasy drafts could backfire if McCarthy struggles under center.

The good news is that the Vikings’ offense features so many elite weapons that they should be able to keep it simple and keep the ball moving down the field. They have enough stars at RB, TE and WR that it feels a very QB-friendly offense to run, and even if McCarthy makes mistakes, this is a team that can score a lot of points.

Aside from that, Jefferson’s hands are so good that that if a ball is catchable, he will almost certainly catch it, and he will be a huge part of Minnesota’s game plan.

Jefferson might feel like a risk at No. 4, but if you are on the clock and every receiver in the league is available to you barring Ja’Marr Chase, you should take either Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb. While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a slight decline in Jefferson’s numbers in 2025, he still projects to be one of the top receivers in NFL fantasy.

Lamb feels like a slightly better pick in 2025 than Jefferson, with Dak Prescott fully healthy again. Yes, the Cowboys added George Pickens and have other question marks, but that Prescott-Lamb connection has been too good for too long to ignore.

Justin Jefferson’s 2025 predicted floor: 90 receptions, 1,200 yards, 7 TDs

Justin Jefferson’s 2025 predicted ceiling: 120 receptions, 1,650 yards, 11 TDs

Prepare for the floor, hope for the ceiling, and expect the reality to be somewhere between the two.

Kevin O’Connell discusses Justin Jefferson’s injury status

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell discussed Justin Jefferson’s injury and his recovery timeline:

“He’ll start doing some more things to begin the process, kind of on the grass. I don’t have an update on the timeline, other than I know the reports [that come] back to me have been really positive. I think evaluation with something like this is more so the checkpoints before he’s eventually just doing more and more and more.

“And that does start this week. Don’t know if that answers your question other than I didn’t have a real update other than that long time before week one, but just based on the fact that he was able to get out and do what he did the other day, is he on track to on a process that would get him in the mix for that first week? Yeah, I’ve been real careful, even in my dialog with him, about what’s what.”

(Featured image credit: Justin Jefferson/Instagram)

Also read: Ashton Jeanty’s 2025 Fantasy Outlook: ADP, Projections & Predictions for Raiders RB